Frontline report: The EU promised Ukraine 2 million shells by 2026—most have already arrived – Euromaidan Press

Today, there are a lot of interesting updates from Ukraine. Europe’s promise to arm Ukraine with 2 million artillery shells in 2025 was ambitious, but it is now ahead of schedule, with two-thirds already delivered in just four months.

Sourced from both EU partners and global allies, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will soon experience a massive influx of artillery ammunition, just in time for the massive planned Russian summer offensive.

The European Union aims to deliver at least 2 million artillery shells to Ukraine this year, having already supplied two-thirds ahead of schedule. Although EU states have expanded domestic production, only about 25% of the shells come from the existing domestic military industrial base. The rest are sourced externally, primarily from South Korean and South African defense firms like Hanwha and Denel.

Since the EU budget cannot be used for direct arms purchases, funding is channeled through the European Peace Facility and returns from reinvested frozen Russian assets. Despite its reliance on external suppliers, the EU is accelerating its artillery production through the Act in Support of Ammunition Production, which was signed in March of last year. The initiative targets an annual output of 2 million domestically produced shells by 2025.

It provides grants to EU defense manufacturers to expand capacity, resolve supply chain issues, and ensure the timely delivery of munitions to both Ukraine and EU member states. As part of this effort, new production facilities have already been launched in Germany, France, Sweden, and Romania.

Czechia leads global sourcing

Czechia, operating independently from the EU, launched its own artillery shell supply initiative in 2024 with NATO backing. The program delivered over 1.5 million shells to Ukraine in its first year. Czech officials expect to match or exceed that number in 2025, thanks to new contracts boosting investment and expanding production capacity.

Interestingly, Czechia has focused on coordinating and financing rather than manufacturing, sourcing shells from a global network that includes suppliers in Türkiye, Poland, Norway, India, and Australia.

The EU has already provided over two-thirds of the number of artillery shells it promised, so its goal of providing 2 million shells by the end of the year is almost guaranteed.

In addition to them, domestic Ukrainian production currently produces 2.5 million artillery shells annually. With all programs combined, Ukraine will produce and receive approximately 6 million artillery shells this year. This safely supports all of Ukraine’s artillery needs, with the provided shells translating to roughly 500,000 per month—enough to sustain the current fire rates of Ukrainian forces.

Currently, Ukrainians consume approximately 150,000 to 200,000 artillery shells per month to counter current Russian assaults along the entire front line. This number can rise to 600,000 per month during major offensive and defensive operations, as seen during the Ukrainian 2023 counteroffensive.

Currently, Russia’s artillery campaign outnumbers Ukraine’s in both consumption and production. In 2024, Russia fired up to 7 million rounds—an average of around 600,000 shells per month. However, they heavily rely on North Korean supplies, which comprise over 50% of Russia’s monthly artillery consumption. This means Russia cannot sustain its usage through domestic production alone.

Ukraine builds firepower reserves

Still, Ukrainians have found a way to compensate for their artillery disadvantage—conserving shells when not absolutely necessary to build up a substantial reserve. This allows them to ramp up their fire rate during more intense Russian offensives and reduce the Russian artillery superiority to a 2:1 ratio. Their current fire rate allows Ukrainians to build up a monthly shell reserve of over 300,000.

Overall, the swift delivery of artillery shells from the EU and the Czech Republic enables the Ukrainians to gradually reduce their artillery disadvantage, as the production capacities of Ukraine and its allies grow faster than anyone anticipated. With production figures for 2025 doubling compared to last year, Ukrainians might have as many as 10 million artillery shells available by 2026, neutralizing the Russian artillery advantage.

While current production numbers are already significantly boosting the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ combat capabilities, smart expenditure will allow Ukraine to completely annihilate any larger Russian offensives planned for the summer campaign.

In our daily frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.